Coronavirus: Indian Economy To Contract 5% In 2020-21, Says Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday forecast the Indian economy to contract 5 per cent in the current fiscal on account of slump in economic activities following a "very severe" lockdown that has lasted much longer than expected.
In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) for May, Fitch projected growth to rebound to 9.5 per cent in 2021-22 and an estimated 3.9 per cent growth in 2019-20.
The forecast of 5 per cent contraction is sharp decline from 0.8 per cent growth projected by the global rating agency in late April.
"The biggest contribution to the downward revision in global GDP for 2020 comes from EM (emerging markets) excluding China, where we now see GDP falling by 5 per cent in India and Russia and by 6-7 per cent in Brazil and Mexico," Fitch said.
This reflects the surge in coronavirus infections from mid-April and measures taken to contain the outbreak, it added.
"The biggest revision by far has been for India, where the virus outbreak has prompted a very severe lockdown that has lasted much longer than expected," the rating agency said.