Pre -Budget III: Why will 2020-21 be more challenging year? By Motilal Oswal

Pre -Budget III: Why will 2020-21 be more challenging year? By Motilal Oswal

Investment Guru India

Pre -Budget III: Why will 2020-21 be more challenging year?

Weak RBI support could entirely offset better tax growth

* In this third and final report of our pre-budget series, we discuss the factors that make the Union Budget 2020-21 very challenging. In FY20, while net taxes are likely to grow only ~3% (v/s budgeted growth of 25.3%) and divestment proceeds will also be likely only 50-60% of the target (down 30% from FY19), total receipts are still expected to grow 6% YoY, primarily helped by unexpectedly large dividends from the RBI amounting to INR1.48t. Besides, the cumulative rate cuts of 135bp in CY19 will help the government save ~INR600b on its interest payments.

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